Can We Still Trust the Numbers?
Eli
Okay, Day One FM. We have been hermetically sealed into the podcast studio once again. A single bead of sweat drips down my forehead. But I will say it's been a while since it's just been us three.
Trey
It has, we're guest free today, which is the first in many weeks.
Eli
Parents aren't home.
Clara
No grownups.
Trey
You know, what we needed though. A little bit of a breather from all the incredible intelligent takes that we've had recently. You just get to listen to us three today.
Eli
Don't blame you if you're hanging up right now or press pause or whatever, swipe up. But you wouldn't do that. You wouldn't do that. Anyway, yeah, I got a lot ish on the docket today. Trey, I know, You've been chomping at the bit to talk about numbers, lots of numbers. Many of which, I mean, I'm sure you have lots of takes on but I've been I've been kind of anti numbers these days. Yeah, I don't buy the numbers. But I'll let you kick things off.
Trey
Well, I think we kind of teased a version of my theory on the previous podcast with our guests, Ben Dietz, which please go listen to that if you haven't an amazing conversation. But my theory TLDR, essentially, is that like, data has become so prevalent in our lives. And by our I mean, like the collective Gen Z we that on social media, I'm just seeing a lot of regurgitation of data in ways that I don't think I've seen before or maybe not at this fever pitch level. So specifically, I'm talking about box office numbers as it relates to the movies, I'm talking about ticket sales, like people selling out concerts on ticket masters, chart positions and Billboard charts. The amount of streams a specific show is getting on like Amazon Prime, Jennifer Lopez, who is the star of the new film Atlas on Amazon Prime.
Eli
Go watch if you haven't.
Trey
But, and this is like a separate probably thing, but in the midst of I guess her like, potential impending divorce with Ben Affleck. Second...
Clara
We've all seen the photos.
Trey
Yeah, I don't know. But like in the midst of all of this kind of celebrity drama, she drops her own newsletter yesterday celebrating that Atlas has received 1.5 billion views. The most watched film in terms of minutes on streaming. So I guess like about an eighth of the world has seen Atlas. And yet, no one is talking about it. And this has kind of been as like a thing that's been happening for a while, in my opinion, like, the biggest show of like, 2021, I think was the Wheel of Time on Amazon Prime. loved that show. Did you guys?
Eli
Never heard of it.
Clara
Yeah. Never heard of that.
Trey
Right. So like, I think that, despite all of this content kind of being consumed a lot. All of the time, there's zero discourse and discussion about what is actually popular.
Eli
Well, it feels like the content and bear with me right now. For some potty humor, I guess what it feels like the content is like, you know, a piece of corn it just visiting, you know, and you're not really it's, you're not really I think it's actually pretty apt. I think that's pretty apt.
Trey
Because you're undigested.
Eli
Yeah, exactly. Exactly. And then flushed down the toilet. You know what I mean? Like gone, forgotten into wherever the East River.
Trey
That's a good take.
Eli
I'm sorry. It's big, like 10 year olds humor. No, but I mean, I have a couple different thoughts. But just to go off of that, I was just at this conference, and someone was giving a talk about the success of a, like design, design lead campaign that they did or whatever. And at the end, there was kind of like a big by the numbers, big bold numbers. And one of them was like 5 billion followers gained. And I was like, how does that even make sense? And where? You're talking about whatever percentage of the global population was following what by the way, because this was a soccer tournament filled with like, whatever 32 teams so I'm like? A'int no way.
Trey
Right.
Eli
It's just not happening but no one bats an eye, the numbers are easy. And no one's really kind of like digging into the methodology at all.
Trey
Well, nobody's use numbers in a way that has been compelling because I think like, another issue that is, like, corollary to this is that nobody can really quantify in their minds, big numbers oftentimes. So it's like, oh, they're, you know, 82 billionaires living in Manhattan or something and it's like, I don't know how much that is. Is that normal?
Eli
Is it like the monetary amount that they are? Or just like is that a lot of is that a lot of billionaires concentrated in one spot right?
Trey
Like yeah, either or do you know what I mean? Like it's hard I think to parse the numbers when you have nothing to compare it to you but yet I think because of Stan culture and the rise of Stan culture we've seen numbers kind of be like the headline story on social media so I'm gonna like throw it a bunch of numbers now. But the series Maxton Hall, a German language teen drama, broke records, it achieved the largest first week global viewership for an international original series on Prime Video. Okay. The overall box office is down nearly 40% this this time versus last year. The Garfield movie is number one, if you are curious.
Eli
What they made a Garfield movie?
Trey
With Chris Pratt. Yeah, it's a sequel to the previous Garfield movie.
Eli
When?
Trey
Right right?
Eli
Are you sure?
Trey
No, I'm absolutely I'm actually positive. I follow all of these things.
Eli
Oh, shit they did.
Trey
This is my bread and butter.
Eli
It's out now. There's a 7:40 at AMC 34th st.
Trey
Other other fun fact, Dr. Pepper is on the rise, it has become the second most popular soda only surpassed by coke. It has to hide Pepsi, which is like really gone down. But like, I just think there's a lot of interesting things that are like kind of bubbling up in the culture that are being represented as numbers. And the reason I think it's so interesting is because as I said on the Ben Dietz pod, I think that like people are just naturally more in tune with engagement and analytics, knowing that we are all influencers now, and we all have access to how our own content performs. So everything's performance is like, important as a measurement of success now in ways that it wasn't previously.
Clara
I'm also curious, because you brought up like, Stan culture and stuff, too. How much and you brought up Eli, like a grand, perhaps.
Eli
Corn?
Clara
You brought up corn, but you also brought up the 5 billion new followers thing, how much the numbers is also about, like, ways to prove relevancy? Like today, we went to the Dazed culture panel, which not getting super into it, but they talked about, like, viral sort of being like a bygone metric, like what does that even mean anymore, but I think a lot of these, this like, number proliferation kind of speaks to that to have movies or actors or Stans or individual people trying to prove their own point of such and such actor such and such artists, he's like, the biggest of their generation, according to this stat that I was able to pull from whatever, or like this brand is resonating in this way, based off of this sort of like, what does it even mean percentage increase of followers? Again, not just to say it's broken, but I think that it's kind of, I don't know, symptomatic of a larger, ill on the internet.
Trey
And in the same way, you know, how like, you know, clicks or whatever on a certain article became this, like status or measurement, or, you know, I do think the way that people, you know, like Stans or whatever have brought numbers to the fore, per say, kind of is reflected in how media is reacting to it now. So like, to your point, the New York Times just ran a piece about how big quote unquote big Taylor Swift is compared to previous generations of pop stars, whether it's like the Beatles or Michael Jackson. And Sherwood news, which is a new kind of venture is sort of very much intrinsically about data and how data is like the story. So I think they partnered partnered with something called Charter, which essentially is a great newsletter also. But they it's like visual thinker isn't data driven professionals, they kind of just distill stories based on like numbers and charts and whether you know, things are up or down or like there's like giant numbers like 13 billion, the number of, you know, sales, the Saudi government spends, I don't know, whatever. But like, the point being, is that numbers are everywhere, and I think it like was kind of a grassroots movement, per se. And I think it's because of social media.
Clara
Yeah, I mean, do you think I mean, maybe this is being lazy about it. But do you think it's fair to say that numbers have kind of become like a lazier way of trying to tell a convincing story about things? Well, yeah, not to get into like the... I mean, not to get like super into the weeds of it, but it does seem like we're I don't know, like numbers or whatever, like, you can't dispute this, like this is like objective fact, Taylor Swift is like certified blah, blah, blah. But like, it sort of becomes this one upsmanship of apples and origins, apples and oranges, statistics, you know what I mean? It's like, well, she was a top selling artists now. But like, if you adjust this for inflation, or like, you adjust this for the fact that social media exists, and it just, it becomes this kind of like, weird argument, like, you're not even really talking about artists to artists anymore, you're talking about, like, comparing revenue of tour dates that were like 30 years apart, and in vastly different, like cultural social climates. You're not really having a merit based conversation about like artists.
Trey
Well especially with Taylor Swift.
Clara
I mean, let's not even.
Trey
But yeah, I think, you know, also another example, like inflation, I think people are more aware now than ever about numbers, everyone seems to suddenly know what the price of like gas and eggs were two years ago, because they're like, everything, you know, like, I don't know, I don't look at prices. And that's probably my bad, but I think like, people seem to I know, like, generally the price of like, the fast food line slop that like I get for lunch versus what it was previously. And today, my pet sandwich was like $15, which is absurd. We need to have a talk about that.
Eli
It is airport food.
Clara
But I think it's also easier to your point about like bread and egg prices, like it's also easier to like, look things up and pretend like you know, and like pretend like this is deeply impactful to you.
Trey
Yeah.
Clara
Which kind of goes back to the point of like, I think what's so annoying about the numbers conversation is it's like in large part like supplanting having an actual conversation about like, how people feel inflation impact, because it's all become like a according to XYZ number or whatever type of thing.
Trey
I believe that, oh.
Eli
Believe what?
Trey
I believe the numbers like, I think they're true, but you made like, a salient point about the numbers being divorced of context. And I think that accounts for example, like pop crave that's like, this person out charted this person, and there's nothing else to kind of glean from that info. And that model has picked up steam because it's like, oh, smash that RT RT button. But, um, I just, I think that, you know, I objectively believe a number, like, I'm going to believe a story if it has a number attached.
Clara
Exactly. I mean, I think it's, there's like two separate things. It's like, are the numbers true? Like, is it true that Taylor Swift, whatever grossed XYZ amount, like, probably, but it's just like, is this point even helping in terms of like, is she the biggest artist of all time? Like, is that a conversation you want to have on the basis of like, we partnered with charter to find out definitively, right? It just feels kind of lazy to me. Do you know what I mean? Where it's like, it's like journalism as enabled by like, mass availability of data. It's not like journalism as enabled by people thinking critically and trying to persuade you to believe similar things. Yeah. Which is lame. Insert foghorn sound.
Eli
Not that this is an economic policy podcast whatsoever. But I think inflation is an interesting case study. Because it is correct to point to certain numbers and data points and talk about how it's decreased whatever, point seven percentage points basis or whatever, egg prices or gas has come down. But that I feel like that doesn't matter. If you're not telling like persuasive story around it, I guess, which is maybe a bit too woowoo. But I think like, people perceive prices have remained the same as same way people perceive that, like, crime is up or we're in a recession.
Trey
Vibe session.
Eli
Rightly or wrongly, I think, to Clara's point, like just pointing to the data is like, I think it's factually correct from like a, I suppose an economic standpoint, although you could always point to different studies, etc. But you might miss, like, having a better argument than someone like to persuade them otherwise, I guess.
Trey
Well there's no emotion involved, really. But like, I think that...
Eli
I think that there is some, I think there is emotion, but sorry, go on.
Trey
Well, yeah.
Clara
Behind the number.
Trey
I think the thing that I really want to kind of think about a bit more is how numbers and data are being weaponized by like, people who really have an agenda with it, and I'm mostly talking about like Taylor Swift fans or whatever, or Netflix, you know. Yeah, I'm like, I'm curious how numbers are being used. is a measure of success to say that everybody watched this one Jennifer Lopez movie that literally nobody I know, has ever heard of.
Eli
I'm also like, what does it mean when we say watch? Because I think a lot of shows and movies these days, particularly those that are going direct to streaming are made with, I think the, not intention. But the observation that most people watching are this is like, they're not intentionally watching something, if that makes sense. Like, it's like laundry folding TV, or like, I'm moving around the house, or like I'm scrolling on my iPad, or like, you know, are they watching the first 15 minutes? And does that count as like a viewing thing? Perhaps, because I just feel like it's more like abstract watching versus like, I sat down in the movies for two and a half hours and sat through this either, like really good, a really short movie. I think there may be needs to be some, like intention tied to it. But maybe that's like, asking too much.
Clara
Yeah, well, I guess and maybe this is a bad or not correct analogy. But I would agree with that, to the extent that like saying that a movie has been streamed X number, X number of times is less interesting to me than saying that like, overall box office is down by a certain percentage, because of that point of like, it's really hard to understand what a view may or may not have been. But the fact that people aren't, are or are not in a movie theater seems to signal. I don't know, like a clear conclusion. Whereas you know, and like that there's different intentionality and different merit to different statistics, which I think is lost along with the context when you see them from like, pop crave or whatever, like all in your Twitter feed simultaneously, where it's easy to kind of, I don't know, not even necessarily get overwhelmed, but just like, feel like these things are all telling one cohesive story about the state of media, the state of film, when it's really not necessarily.
Trey
Yeah, did you see either of you that like, I don't even know if I can call a viral now. But this this, I guess, TikTok or video of this girl who was like, I showed my boyfriend this video, and I saw all these comments. And the top comment was this. And when he looked at it, the top comment was that, like, Do you know what I'm talking about?
Clara
No, like, the comments were skewed based off of their, like algorithms?
Trey
Yeah, it was. Let me look it up, actually. But my last point on this is sort of just how people are using, you know, how seats are being sold in arenas and stadiums and concerts, people are screenshotting and sharing to social as evidence that somebody is like, flopping. Which I also just, I haven't seen that before. Or maybe I just am paying more attention now. But like tickets for Justin Timberlake 's Halloween concert in St. Paul, had been on sale for more than a day. And it shows like a photo of the entire stadium with most of the tickets not sold. So therefore, Justin Timberlake must be a flop. Like, I just am curious if people and like the trends on social I'm trying to be have like massive engagement is being kind of blown up and leaving social media to other venues or areas where now people are like using it as I don't know, evidence of like failure. I just find it really fascinating information.
Clara
Yeah, I mean, I do think it's interesting. I also think it's from a concert standpoint, and I guess comparing Justin Timberlake and Taylor Swift is like, not the perfect one. But like, is it necessarily normal for all artists to sell out? Like, immediately as their concert goes on? You know what I mean?
Trey
Like, I think that it's a good question.
Clara
Like, yeah, like, I think there's like a certain expectation which has been set by you know, what tends to be in everyone's newsfeed of like Taylor Swift tour, like Billy Eilish partners with Ticketmaster to make sure all of her fans have a fair chance of whatever, like, blah, blah. But like, I think, for most shows are like if especially if you're gonna like a smaller show, they don't necessarily sell out immediately. Like a lot of concerts. You buy tickets today of and I don't know...
Trey
Biden's like, bot wars.
Clara
Put it on layaway. But I don't know, I think there's I think that also sort of gets like lost in the conversation too. Like when to your point. These are kind of these data points are being used in sort of like click Beatty ways rather than sort of trying to take them on their merits and figure out what may or may not be going on because it could very well be possible that like Justin Timberlake is flopping but yeah, I also just don't know how, which is, again, it's just the context, you lose, I guess, learning data in this type.
Trey
Like in this, I don't know if I can call it a new era. What we are in desperate need of is somebody to help contextualize the flood of data that's everywhere, because I see one Tweet that says like, Roaring Kitty has this much of Gamestop stock and I'm like, is what do I take from this?
Clara
Yeah, our pitch to you listener. If anyone wants to make a newsletter with the data that you need to know, that is helpful and relevant. We'd read it.
Eli
We would maybe read it. I would maybe click in.
Clara
I would subscribe and maybe unsubscribe. But you know, I would definitely I would try it out.
Eli
Yeah, I don't know. I think data is kind of like beer goggles. It's like really skews, skews your vision. You know, thinks...
Clara
Your full of metaphors today.
Eli
Some better than others. Both food and beverage related, I guess.
Clara
Yeah. Typical.
Eli
One thing I will say. Are you guys excited for Instagrams new
Trey
Yeah.
Eli
Your eyes open to watch like clockwork orange.
Clara
What?
Eli
Unskipable ads baby.
Clara
Unskipable ads where?
Eli
You can't miss it.
Trey
Your scroll will be stopped.
Clara
You will be arrested in your scroll.
Eli
In your feed.
Clara
I haven't received any yet. Are they currently out ?
Eli
They're in beta testing. Yeah. They're in beta testing. But you've been on YouTube? Are you a YouTube user?
Clara
No, I'm not.
Eli
You don't like YouTube? You never listen to music on YouTube?
Clara
I lisetn to music on YouTube in a pinch. But like not really.
Trey
In a pinch. When are you in a pinch?
Clara
Like it logged out of Spotify on my work computer.
Eli
Spotify, that was one Trey. So what's the deal? You're tight because Spotify is raising prices?
Trey
So Spotify is raising prices to $11.99 for premium users which is now more expensive than Apple Music. And so now that Apple Music has better sound quality, Dolby Atmos integrates with the default iPhone music app and gives you weekly and monthly listening stats.
Eli
I would just like to say that I feel extremely vindicated right now because I've never shifted or wavered or gone on to Spotify, despite the three month free trial that you get and you know, the fun little data they give you right at the end. That's one data set that people love their Spotify wrapped. I just think that it's already integrated onto your phone. It looks much better.
Trey
I need like a tutorial on how to use it because, no literally because I've been on Spotify since 2010.
Eli
Wow. And they don't give you some type of loyalty.
Trey
This is a big breakup moment.
Clara
Significant.
Trey
I literally put my Apple Music and I was like the last album I bought was like Natasha Bedingfield. It's been a while.
Eli
Did you ever torrent?
Trey
Oh absolutely. Okay, I was like a Livewire.
Eli
Yeah. Did you ever rip the Pirate Bay?
Trey
I had that too. I had Haza if anyone remembers Haza?
Eli
No but one time I think this is true. My mom will be listening to this so she'll fact check it.
Trey
What did you download?
Eli
I got like a cease and desist like will shut off your Wi Fi. If you don't stop using.
Trey
I got, I got that for Game of Thrones.
Clara
I was gonna say speaking of YouTube. Did you guys ever use YouTube to mp3?
Eli
Of course.
Clara
Oh my gosh, of course, unreleased Lana, that was my peak.
Trey
But my my kind of anecdote is that the Sabrina carpenter song that's that me espresso has come on after every single song regardless of genre.
Clara
hibbett Id dad Ido espresso.
Trey
Yeah, it comes after every song.
Clara
That can be your ringtone if you pay 99 cents.
Trey
And that the Spotify algorithm has gotten so unbearable that I have. I have voluntarily made the choice to trade in my Spotify Premium card for...
Clara
I like that this was the breaking point though. Espresso was like a bridge too far.
Eli
What was that tweet that said this is the first song that actually sounds like a new generation of music or whatever.
Trey
It's like a Doja Cat toss off. It's whatever my opinion aside.
Eli
It's like the Camilla Cabello or whatever song that was with Charlie XCX.
Clara
I love it. I love it. I love it.
Trey
Oh, yeah.
Eli
She got a huge deal, I guess. It was like 40 seconds of that song is gonna Bacardi commercial. I imagine she might have cashed out.
Trey
I mean, if you say I love it, like I could get a deal.
Eli
It's such a random song and I'll only spend 40 seconds on this but it's such a random song. First of all, there's the Gucci Mane lemonade sample oddly in there. There's the kind of like faux Charlie XCX. Like, yeah, it was like Playboy Cardi, Playboy Cardi doing like Future and Desiigner cosplay but whatever this is, folks this is an Anthony Fantana on the will save the music analysis for smarter, smarter people. But yeah welcome to the the right side of history Trey with Apple news.
Trey
Oh please thank you.
Eli
I mean yeah, Apple apples another interesting one I guess interesting I don't really know where I'm necessarily going with this based on the iPad ad which I feel like a lot of people talked about including ourselves maybe not on this pod but you know, on the sidelines about like, you know, this really rubbed people the wrong way it did and they did issue an apology and they did pull it but I would love to see how many people actually bought it because ultimately like doesn't matter if they kind of had like a shitty ad and still bought it.
Trey
I probably wouldn't have seen otherwise.
Eli
Seen what?
Trey
The Apple ad I don't know.
Eli
I mean I again I think we're just like really tuned into this although it was It wasn't you know, the mainstream quote unquote media but I think we're like more attune to ads the same with like, you know, this is completely separate, but like the Heineken boring phone, it's like, has anyone actually seen that?
Clara
No, no.
Trey
Things like things that are stunted that breakthrough in culture. I'm doing like a big eye roll while I say that. I just don't think anyone notices.
Eli
Yeah. So what do you think people like really notice then? I guess ever that's that's kind of an unfair question.
Trey
Right, because, like, yesterday, or the day before, I was talking to my friend and she was like, oh, did you see Modi got reelected? And I was like, okay, so...
Eli
Barely.
Trey
Yeah, barely, I guess he's like struggling but the point being it's like a major election and like a rising global super about power doesn't even make, you know, like...
Eli
The world's most populous country.
Trey
I think he was reelected for like the third or second or third time, which is the most ever terms for an Indian president since something something.
Eli
Anyway, we'll leave it in the show notes.
Trey
That to me is like people should know this. But did you?
Eli
I did he was third term and he was supposed to sweep. But I don't think he was able to get a coalition. We've been all over the place today. And in the best way possible. We got geopolitics. We got streaming, both numbers and price increases. You digestive references. What else should we talk about? Hunter Biden today I was in court. Oh man. I'm getting. I thought this was this was fun. It was great to just chat with both of you.
Trey
Right. I'll be sad when you're at Cannes winning awards, meeting the coolest people.
Eli
Yeah. Well, well, we'll be thinking of you. Alright cut.